Monday, August 30, 2010

The White Swan

At risk of following the herd, I have a long strategy on Apple. With just about every analyst predicting Apple to shoot through 300, my ideas may look conservative. On the same token, it seems that unless Nasssim Nicholas Taleb is a prophet, there is a negligible amount of risk. The idea is as follows:

Buy January 2011 270Calls at 11.70 a piece
Sell January 2011 220Puts at 12.96 a pop

The strategy will be profitable so long as AAPL doesn't drop under 218.74 between now and January. If it stays between 270 and 220 you'll net a nominal gain ($126/Contract), and if it pops above 270 as several analysts predict, there is potentially unlimited upside.

It might not seem too prudent to be long when so many economic indicators (including my previous post) are short the market, but Apple seems to have been able to defy the broad market -- and with a powerful lineup of new products (I'm typing this from a new macbook pro, which is AMAZING) and no end to the I-pad, pod, phone, mac craze -- I think it's a safe bet.

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